One real trader had 311 15-minute Bollinger reversal trades. The costly variant was reversing while the 15m candle still closed outside the Bollinger Band.
Reversing while the candle still closes outside · 195 trades
−13,317.82Historical net result (USDT)
66.15%Loss rate
4,016.47Fees (USDT)
195trades
Wick outside, close back inside · 49 trades
+789.36Historical net result (USDT)
49trades
Personal rule: Do not reverse while the 15m candle still closes outside the band.
Personal historical replay · Not a forecast of future returns
Anonymized real trading case
Not every momentum entry is the same.
Within the same 60-minute episode, the first impulse and the second or later impulse turned out to be two very different trades.
Second or later impulse · 276 trades
68.12%Loss rate
1.41 ATRMedian 60m adverse excursion
First impulse
0.79 ATRMedian 60m adverse excursion
Personal rule: Do not directly chase the second or later acceleration within the same 60-minute episode.
Historical mechanical delta: +6,004.09 USDT
Personal historical replay · Not a forecast of future returns
Evidge is not an AI telling you to “chase less and use tighter stops”. It finds the specific situation where you go wrong, and checks it against your own data only. Someone else's rule is never simply applied to you.